Word
Action number 21105 Last updated 28/04/2011 16:59:48 Year 2011
Title Support to Agricultural Trade and Market Policies
Acronym AGRITRADE
Type
Url http://agrilife.jrc.es/agritrade.html
Institute JRC.J Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (Seville)
Leader M'BAREK Robert JRC.DDG.J.5   E-Mail
2 Solidarity and the responsible management of resources
2.1 Agriculture, rural development, and fisheries
2.1.1 Agriculture and Rural Development
THE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS (FAO)
Member states EU
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Customer DGs AGRI - Agriculture and Rural Development
RTD - Research
TRADE - Trade
Economic analysis, impact assessment, Common Agricultural Policy, agricultural trade, agricultural markets, competitiveness, modelling tools, price volatility
Rationale
Turning the EU into a smart, sustainable, greener and inclusive economy, as outlined in the EU2020 strategy, also depends on agriculture and the agri-food industry which contribute to economic growth and employment. A greener economy is a challenge that has to include agriculture, which manages almost half of the EU's territory and plays a key role in ensuring sustainable use of resources and combating climate change. Policies shall give a frame to an open and competitive agricultural sector.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), representing the second largest share of the EU budget, is an evolving policy area and will undergo reforms in the coming years to be designed for the 21st century and respond to new internal and external challenges. In particular the revision of the financial perspectives and the rebalancing of payments to farmers will frame the further development of the CAP after 2013.
The EU as a major exporter and the world's largest importer of food is pursuing further market liberalisation. As a worldwide issue, the volatility of agricultural prices and its impact on food security and farmers' income has shown that the inter-linkages of production variation, national policies, feedstock use for bio-energy, changing consumption patterns and other market drivers are highly complex. A reliable market outlook needs to take into account the possible range of different assumptions concerning driving factors.
A new key driver for green growth and the further development of the CAP, rural development and trade policy is climate change and the corresponding strategies for mitigation and adaptation for agriculture, including risk management and technological innovation.
The assessment of the economic, social and environmental impacts of the above-mentioned policies and market developments requires consistent databases and adequate quantitative tools which need to be continuously adapted to new orientations, developments and challenges.
To this end, the AGRITRADE action in cooperation with DG AGRI has built up the integrated Agro-Economic Modelling Platform (iMAP).
The modelling tools of iMAP have strong potential for scientific work and for linking natural and social/economic sciences, which can be a pre-condition for the analysis of complex policy issues.
Summary of the activity
The AGRITRADE action focuses on strategic policy analysis of agricultural market and trade policies, based on advanced economic modelling tools and statistical methods, supporting in particular the main customer DG AGRI.
From a mainly macro-economic perspective, AGRITRADE assesses the impact of the post 2013 CAP reform, provides analysis of the development of agricultural commodity markets, and carries out analysis of international trade agreements, adjusting the research focus to the policy agenda.
This requires particular attention to the continuing development of the large-scale economic modelling tools (partial and general equilibrium model) and software infrastructure within the integrated Agro-Economic Modelling Platform (iMAP). Emphasis is also put on data needs, building top quality EU-27 economic databases for agriculture, the food chain, rural areas and the whole economy (social accounting matrices). The tools and databases cover the regional, national and international level to cope with the different dimensions of the implementation of CAP, rural development, trade and other related policies. Currently, the AGRITRADE modelling team works with the main pan-European agricultural sector models (AGLINK, ESIM, CAPRI) and widely used general equilibrium models (GTAP, GLOBE).
The AGRITRADE team is well integrated into the community of economic modellers and contributes with its scientific and technical panels to a coordinated and synergistic development of models and databases in the agricultural domain.
Connecting the different JRC priorities on Energy, Environment, Climate Change, Agriculture and Development and as link between natural sciences (bio-physical modelling) and economic analysis, the tools of iMAP play a leading role in integrating several JRC activities. This integrative capacity is translated into AGRITRADE's collaboration with several JRC actions and contribution to the JRC Thematic Areas on Agriculture, Climate Change and Land Use, as well as to the JRC Thematic Programmes on Biofuels and Africa.
From an institutional point of view, AGRITRADE is mainly located in JRC Thematic Area 1 "Towards an Open and Competitive Economy" (75%), and for the rest contributes also to JRC Thematic Area 3 "Sustainable Management of Natural Resources".
 
  1
Assess the impact of the CAP post 2013 reform on the agricultural sector in the EU economy (JRC TA1) The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has undergone fundamental reforms over the last decades and shall respond to the demand of an environmentally and socially sustainable agricultural production while enhancing its competitiveness. Agriculture as one of several economic sectors and one of several crucial policies of the European Commission has to provide options for the years to come, which will depend also on the EU financial planning for 2013-17.
Deliverable  1.1
Report to DG AGRI.L2 on the impacts of different policy options for the CAP after 2013 using the quantitative tools of the modelling platform
30/06/2011
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  1.2
Interim report on the development of a pan-European modelling system linking the agricultural sector (CAPRI model) and the rest of the economy (regional general equilibrium model) to analyse the regional impacts of all policy measures under CAP Pillar I and II. (FP7 CAPRI-RD) (cooperation with IES-AGRIENV)
30/12/2011
CAT2 - Policy support documents
  2
Evaluate the international competitiveness of the European agro-food sector in an uncertain economic environment (JRC TA1) The agricultural sector is moving to more market orientation and less protection following the continuing multi- and bilateral trade liberalization. This creates more competition and is accompanied by greater volatility of prices, challenging farmers and the food industry to adapt rapidly to market signals, to manage the inherent risks and to enhance competitiveness through innovation. The AGRITRADE action supports with its model-based projections of agricultural markets DG AGRI in the preparation of the agricultural market outlook, with a special research focus on macro-economic uncertainties, price volatility and risk management. The analysis of bi- and multilateral trade negotiations completes the picture of the EU in a competitive world.
Deliverable  2.1
JRC report on market outlook of agricultural commodities in Europe (baseline 2020) and the Black Sea region for DG AGRI
30/06/2011
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  2.2
JRC report on the workshop "Impact of non-tariff measures in EU-African trade"
30/06/2011
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  2.3
Journal article on the impact on the agricultural sector of a potential accession of Turkey to the EU
30/06/2011
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  2.4
Report on international trade following the policy agenda of DG AGRI (WTO, bi- and multilateral)
30/12/2011
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  2.5
Publishing of the book "Methods to analyse agricultural commodity price volatility"
30/06/2011
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  2.6
Quantitative model for spot and future agricultural commodity price forecast
30/12/2011
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  2.7
Report on potential of futures and derivatives products to manage risk in agriculture, comparing the EU with the US approach (exploratory research)
30/12/2011
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  2.8
Report on sensitivity analysis of macroeconomic assumptions: impact on the EU agricultural markets
30/12/2011
CAT2 - Policy support documents
  3
Evaluate the economic impact of green growth (TA1&3) Agriculture is per se a sector with a high potential for green growth, i.e. growing economically while contributing to both reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the development of its role as a carbon sink. The AGRITRADE action contributes to this interdisciplinary research area with its economic modelling tools focusing on the implications for agri-food markets in agriculture's contribution to a low carbon society, impacts of sustainable management and use of resources (water, land, biodiversity) and to model risk and uncertainty on the supply side.
Deliverable  3.1
Update of report on the impacts of feedstock use for bio-energy in the context of the JRC thematic programme biofuel (cooperation in particular with IE and IES)
30/12/2011
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  3.2
JRC technical report and article on the economic impact analysis of livestock sector's contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions (cooperation with IES-GHG-AFOLU)
28/04/2011
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  3.3
Report on the impact of supply side shocks on agricultural markets (uncertainty of natural resources)
30/06/2011
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  3.4
Working paper on multi-scale analysis of agricultural and environmental policies and the potential of linking economic, land-use and bio-physical models in the context of climate change (cooperation with IPTS-SUSTAG, IES-AGRI4CAST, IES-AGRIENV)
30/12/2011
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
  4
Develop reliable databases, data tools and innovative models (JRC TA1) Science-based policy support requires reliable data and models, able to tackle also new challenges. Currently, a large quantity of statistics on agricultural markets and trade is readily available to researchers, policy-makers and the general public. Yet this data has limited coverage (geographical, commodities, time series) and shows differences when compared to other data sources (definitions, methodology, errors). AGRITRADE is establishing a data management system to overcome these shortcomings and to provide harmonised, complete and consistent data series that can be used for research and modelling. The modeling tools used in the AGRITRADE action need permanent adaption to new policies and economic developments. In-depth analysis of the tools and benchmarking shall allow answering also future's questions.
Deliverable  4.1
Journal article on AGRILIFE data management tool to compare model databases and online data sources
30/06/2011
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  4.2
Further development of the data management tool, allowing in-depth analysis of different databases and ad-hoc analytical support to DG AGRI
30/12/2011
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  4.3
Report and database for regionalised CGE models (cooperation with IPTS-SUSTAG and IPTS-REMO)
30/06/2011
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  4.4
Report on SWOT analysis (strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) of the tools of the Modelling Platform (iMAP), their capacity to simulate current and likely future CAP changes and definition of a future strategy
30/06/2011
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  4.5
Constitution of a Reference Group for the Modelling Platform
30/06/2011
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  4.6
Working paper on introducing stochastics into iMAP models
30/12/2011
CAT2 - Policy support documents
  5
Many activities are carried out in the context of the Administrative Arrangement "Integrated Modelling Platform for Agro-economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP Project 3)" in the first half of 2011. It is foreseen to sign a follow-up AA (iMAP Project 4) for the second half of 2011. They are summarised under the deliverables 1.1 and 2.1. Related reports of the FP7 project "Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact The Rural Development Dimension" (CAPRI-RD) aiming at the analyse the regional impacts of all policy measures under CAP Pillar I and II, will be delivered to DG RTD, in cooperation with IES-AGRIENV. Related interim reports of the FP7 project "New issues in agriculture, food and bioenergy trade" (AGFOODTRADE) will be prepared in cooperation with other research institutions and provided to DG RTD. AGRITRADE will also contribute to the FP7 project "Sustainable Organic and Low Input Dairying" (SOLID), analysing the impact of more widespread adoption of novel strategies of organic and low-input dairy systems compared to further intensification of milk production in the EU. However, output of AGRITRADE is expected from 2012 on.
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