Action number 21103 Last updated 17/06/2011 17:07:06 Year 2011
Title Crop Production Forecasts and Climate Change Impact
Type Action
Institute JRC.H Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra)
Leader NIEMEYER Stefan JRC.H.4   E-Mail
2 Solidarity and the responsible management of resources
2.1 Agriculture, rural development, and fisheries
2.1.1 Agriculture and Rural Development
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
European Environment Agency
European Food Safety Agency
Leonid Pogorilyy Ukrainian Scientific Research Institute
United States Department of Agriculture USDA
Customer DGs AGRI - Agriculture and Rural Development
AIDCO - EuropeAid
ELARG - Enlargement
ENTR - Enterprise and Industry
ENV - Environment
ESTAT - Eurostat
JRC - Joint Research Centre
REGIO - Regional Policy
RELEX - External Relations
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Crop Yield Forecasts, Crop Monitoring, Crop Area Estimates, Food Supply, Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation, Biophysical Modelling, Agro-meteorology, Remote Sensing, Area Frame Sampling, Component Oriented Software Development, Agricultural Modelling Platform
The rationale behind the crop forecasts at EU level is the need to provide timely information for rapid decision-making on Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) instruments during the growing season. In fact, key production statistics are typically provided by Member States to Eurostat and DG-AGRI with a time lag, i.e. several months after harvest. This delay affects decision making in planning tools related to the CAP, as the necessary integrated European view is missing. The sooner information on crop production and harvest is available the better.
With the AGRI4CAST Action, CAP decision makers in DG-AGRI are provided with timely, independent crop yield forecasts at European and Member State level. The results of the AGRI4CAST Action are used by DG-AGRI and DG ESTAT analysts to prepare food balance sheet estimates, and are thus used for market analyses and decisions related to the CAP management of stocks, import/export, market and intervention, and budget preparation.
In view of providing support to the CAP and the Climate Change policy agenda of the EC, studies that assess the resilience of crop production systems under a number of climate change scenarios are being implemented. Agriculture has a dual role in terms of global change: it is an important emitter of greenhouse gases, while at the same time it is one of the main sectors to be impacted by climatic change, with local, regional and global implications for the stability and access of food supply.
The AGRI4CAST crop monitoring activities are performed under EU law with regard to their maintenance, operation and analysis. The latest regulation (Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008) was adopted on January 2008 for the period 2008 - 2013 to cover the operational activities directly financed by DG-AGRI for a period of 6 years, acknowledging the effectiveness of the crop yield forecasts over and above the information provided by traditional agricultural statistics and other forecasting systems. AGRI4CAST guarantees the scientific relevance, independence and timeliness of its data products.
Summary of the activity
The Action is centred on the JRC's crop yield forecasting system which aims to provide accurate and timely crop yield forecasts and crop production estimates (including biofuel crops) for the EU territory and other strategic areas of the world. The system, which monitors crop vegetation growth (cereal, oil seed crops, protein crops, sugar beet, potatoes, pastures, rice), including the short-term effects of meteorological events on crop production, provides seasonal yield forecasts on key European crops, thereby contributing to the evaluation of global production estimates (wheat, rice, etc.) in support of CAP management decisions.
The AGRI4CAST system, also known as the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) is a complex, integrated analysis tool comprising remote sensing and meteorological observations, agro-meteorological and bio-physical modelling as well as statistical analysis. The latter two components receive key input from the MARS’ meteorological and remote sensing infrastructure. The information and system output is made available throughout the JRC and is regularly used by a number of JRC Actions (e.g. FLOODS, DESERT, SOIL, AGRI-ENV, AFOLU).
During 2011 the system will be further enhanced by extending its simulation capacities for forecasting crop yields in the EU and key regional production areas such as Asia and Latin America, thus taking the first steps towards global coverage. Both current and expected new climate conditions will be analysed, focusing on short-term and medium-term time horizons (e.g. 2020, 2050).
AGRI4CAST is strongly linked with the FOODSEC Action. The two Actions share a common global information infrastructure, with an outsourced near-real-time acquisition and pre-processing of remote sensing and meteorological data .The two actions are strongly coordinated to potentially cover the entire world. Both actions are involved in the GEOSS Agriculture crop monitoring activities.
International activities: AGRI4CAST also contributes to the GEOSS programme on Agriculture (workshops, webpage). Collaboration Agreements and Memoranda of Understanding exist with the USDA (USA), CAAS (China), INRA (Morocco), INTA (Argentina) and the Leonid Pogorilyy Scientific Research Institute (Ukraine). AGRI4CAST collaborates with the FAO on crop area statistics.
Objective 1: Improvement of the MARS Crop Yield System software, both on architecture (modular architecture based on components), simulation capabilities (databases, new modelling solutions) and scientific approaches (model ensembles, model sensitivity analysis and calibration, reference data collection), in order to ensure the scientific robustness of the system. Maintenance of the MARS infrastructures is an intrinsic part of this. (Links to the WP 2011 between DG AGRICULTURE and JRC for the cross-delegation budget for the implementation of regulation 78/2008).
Deliverable  1.1
Scientifically improved MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System: Including an extended modular platform for plant modelling incorporating remote sensing under the BioMA structure (Biophysical Model Applications) and nitrogen simulation capabilities. Category 4 - Technical systems and category
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  1.2
Updated version of the MARS Crop Growth Monitoring System including the Project Management Board software.
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  1.3
New release of the statistical Control Board software (COBO 2) allowing for regionalised yield forecasts and the incorporation for rye and triticale for EU 27.
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  1.4
Web portal for the dissemination of software tools developed for the simulation of biophysical systems.
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  1.5
Operational maintenance and improvement of the Mars Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) infrastructures (Remote Sensing, Meteo, Agro-Meteo databases) allowing simulation runs for climate change scenarios centred on 2020 and 2050 and performance of the crop yield forecasts, including rye and triticale, as well as delivery of data to costumers. (cross links to JRC Actions FOODSEC, FLOODS, GHG-AFOLU, DESERT, SOILS, CID).
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Provision of near-real-time, operational, context analyses at EU27 level on crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting, including rice and pastures, based on the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System; and enlargement of the analysis to pilot areas (other strategic areas of the world) for the world prospects on cereal and wheat production, ensuring commensurate information dissemination to our customers via Bulletins, the website and web-portals. (Links to the WP 2011 between DG AGRICULTURE and JRC for the cross-delegation budget for the implementation of regulation 78/2008).
Deliverable  2.1
Crop monitoring reports: - Reports and crop yield forecasts (6) at Pan European level including the Maghreb; i.e. EU MARS Bulletins for cereals, rapeseed, sunflower, potatoes and sugar beet; - Forecast update reports (2-3) for cereals, rapeseed, sunflower, potatoes and sugar beet; - Agro-meteorological update reports (10-12) reviewing the agro-meteorological situation at pan-European level; - European Rice Bulletin (2) containing agro-meteorological assessments and yield forecasts;. - European Pasture Bulletin (2-3) containing agro-meteorological assessments and production level outlooks; - Bulletin based on CGMS ASIA with a focus on the Black Sea area and Russia containing regional level agro-meteorological assessments and yield forecasts for wheat; - Reports on participation in OUTLOOK groups in DG-AGRI to present results; - Special reports following ad hoc requests from DG AGRI to assess adverse weather conditions in Member States which affect agricultural production.
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  2.2
Data (meteo, agro-meteo, remote sensing, yield statistics, crop data, phenology) and software (e.g. BioMA, CGMS, ClimIndices) dissemination to stakeholders via the MARS web portals for biophysical simulations and data usage within research projects (cross link to Action CID, FOODSEC).
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Climate change impacts on agriculture. Employ and modify crop simulation models to investigate impacts of climate change scenarios on a global scale, with regional detail. Assess resilience and vulnerability of production systems by computing changes in the geographic suitability of crops and quantifying the benefits of adaptation strategies, exploring and quantifying the effectiveness of changes in crop management practices and cropping systems.
Deliverable  3.1
Scientific publications (1-2) on aspects of production risks from climate change in the EU and key production regions (i.e. Asia, Latin America).
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  3.2
Reusable web-application platform of data and models related to climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for agriculture. Partly covered by the EUROCLIMA project – AA with DG AIDCO
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  3.3
First version of a software component simulating the mycotoxin contamination of maize which can be used for the simulation of climate change effects on the pathosystem and on future grain maze safety. Marie Curie Research Fellowship.
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Deliverable  3.4
Contribution to reports concerning the impact of climate change on agriculture by DG AGRI based on case studies.
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  3.5
Data provision based on our existing databases for the Climate change clearinghouse of the European Commission.
CAT5 - Other policy support products and services
Crop area estimates. Test and/or pilot approaches for crop area estimates using area frame sampling and/or remote sensing. Provide scientific and technical input to EUROSTAT and customers for improving statistics-related activities such as the Lucas survey (Land Use/Cover Area-frame Survey). Assess the potential use of moderate resolution satellite images combined with an area frame survey for crop area estimation.
Deliverable  4.1
Scientific publications related to crop area estimates and the utility of new remote sensing sensors on a pilot study in Ukraine (to end in July 2012).
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Deliverable  4.2
Report comparing the efficiency of the LUCAS 2006 and 2009 samples.
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  4.3
Report on the adaptation of LUCAS to Bosnia-Herzegovina.
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  4.4
Publication(s) on the use of moderate resolution images combined with area frame surveys (data provided by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture) for crop area estimation.
CAT7 - Scientific publications
Scientific networking, thematic workshops and international collaborations. Continuation of the current MoUs and CAs which facilitate the transfer of know-how on crop monitoring and transferring systems (MCYFS modules). Contribute to the GEOSS initiative. (Contribution to Integration and Enlargement).
Deliverable  5.1
Report from the 5th Crop Growth Monitoring System expert workshop.
CAT2 - Policy support documents
Deliverable  5.2
Data provision and conceptual contribution to the PAY (production- area-yield) database of the GEOSS initiative.
CAT2 - Policy support documents
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